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COVID-19 Data Analysis in a Stationary Time Series

Authors

Yao Joanna

Rubric:Medicine and healthcare
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This paper starts with a general discussion regarding the spread of COVID-19 and aims to use R to make regional predictions regarding the virus's spread. We carried out multiple lines of code of time series models using data sets from different countries, specifically New Jersey, United States, and Shanghai, China. We sought to analyze patterns in the virus’s proliferation to make future forecasts. The results demonstrate that the model with the coefficients (1, 0, 0) can be useful to forecast the number of COVID-19 cases. This statistical forecast can be helpful for current and future resources allocation and epidemic prevention, as well as epidemiology and disease study.

Keywords

COVID19
epidemiology
time series
R
prediction
AR time series

Authors

Yao Joanna

References:

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  2. Baud, David, Xiaolong Qi, Karin Nielsen-Saines, Didier Musso, Léo Pomar, and Guillaume Favre. "Real Estimates of Mortality following COVID-19 Infection." The Lancet Infectious Diseases 20, no. 7 (2020): 773. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30195-X.
  3. "COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU)." Infographic. Johns Hopkins University & Medicine. 2021. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.
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  6. Varotsos, Costas A., and Vladimir F. Krapivin. "A New Model for the Spread of COVID-19 and the Improvement of Safety." ScienceDirect. Last modified 2020. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0925753520303593#.
  7. Velevan, Thirumalaisamy P., and Christian G. Meyer. "The COVID‐19 Epidemic." National Center for Biotechnology Information. Last modified February 16, 2020. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7169770/.
  8. Code for Replication, derived from R-Studio: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1g8YxUjOVnLzGFYHb5zrr2X7Y94Vrbd0u?usp=sharing

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