Industrial Development in Belarus under External Shocks: Institutional Structure, Constraints, and Adaptation
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Viktar Karpovich
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The study analyzes the industrial development of Belarus from 2015 to 2024 under consecutive external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic, sanctions, and persistent structural constraints. Using official statistical data and institutional analysis, the research evaluates output dynamics, investment activity, employment trends, and the role of state-affiliated enterprises. The results show that the sector demonstrated notable resilience through the reconfiguration of production and logistics chains and sustained investment, particularly in the energy segment. However, high material intensity, declining profitability, labor shortages, and structural concentration continue to limit technological upgrading and long-term competitiveness. The study contributes to the literature on industrial resilience by identifying the mechanisms of adaptation in a medium-sized, state centric economy and outlines strategic priorities for sustainable industrial development, including modernization, energy-efficiency improvements, SME support, and export diversification.
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Authors
Viktar Karpovich
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