Supply Chain Interdependencies and the Macroeconomic Role of Surface Freight Transportation: Evidence from a Joint Probabilistic Forecasting and Stochastic Routing Architecture
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Harrii Doskach
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Surface freight transportation is both a cost input and a demand signal within supply chains, yet the feedback mechanisms through which carrier-level operational decisions affect macroeconomic outcomes remain theoretically underspecified and empirically difficult to trace. This paper investigates those mechanisms by analyzing a hardware-implemented freight route optimization system that unifies probabilistic cargo load forecasting and vehicle routing within a single stochastic objective function. Validated against three baseline configurations on a 14-day operational dataset covering 118 Class 8 vehicles, the architecture reduced total daily route mileage by 29.7%, deadhead mileage by 34.1%, and improved on-time delivery rates from 81.3% to 93.6%. The gap between a traffic-aware commercial routing system (14.2% mileage reduction) and the proposed architecture (29.7%) demonstrates that demand uncertainty quantification contributes more to carrier-level cost reduction than does road-network intelligence alone.
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Authors
Harrii Doskach
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References:
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