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Austrian Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences, Issue 1-2/2017

WORLD ECONOMIC ORDER: ALTERNATIVE TRANSFORMATION MODELS

DOI: https://doi.org/10.29013/AJH-17-1.2-107-115

Pages: 107 - 115

Authors: Baburina O. N.

Abstract: Objective: to determine changes in the positions of leading countries in the modern global economy and to compare alternative models of transformation of the world economic order (WEO). Methods: modeling and system (world system) approach, analysis and synthesis, dialectical, historical, logical and statistical methods. Results: based on the analysis of the scientific literature, the definition of the WEO concept and evolution of theoretic approaches to its formation are revealed. It is justified that the theory of hegemonic stability whose main idea states that the the world community needs a centre of power for stability became the reason for the global instability. With the use of statistical data the positions of leading countries in the world economy are analysed, it is proven that currently China is the leader of the global economy in terms of growth rate and share in the world GDP and world export as well as research and development (R&D) expenditures. The basis of the Chinese technological leadership is the successful implementation of the costs innovations strategy. Based on the conducted analysis of economic indicators of the leading countries of the world it is stated that two models of the future world order are most probable. The first model implies maintenance of the monocentric world while replacing the USA as a centre of power with China. The second model involvees the formation of the twopolar system: the USA — China. The model of balance of power has a low degree of probability due to a significant difference in the level of development of the five leading economies of the world. Scientific novelty: acceleration of transformation of the WEO is justified and alternative models of the world are compared for the first time with the use of the described methods and concepts. Practical significance: the main arguments and conclusions of the article can be used by the public authorities of the Russian Federation when updating the Russian foreign economic strategy, as well as in the activities of international summits.

Keywords: world order, world economic order, World-systems Analysis, Theory of Hegemonic Stability.

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